The economy isn't in such a plumb state that most experts would have you believe. Despite the obvious improvements in the stock market prices and the slight upward tick in the prices of houses, a recovery from what was experienced last year is nowhere on the current horizon. The road to recovery will be much tougher as we have yet to experience the "big one".
At the current time, businesses of individuals looking for bad credit loans will find it relatively easier to obtain. This is because of the picking up of the economy the last couple of months. The price of loans are cheap and acceptance ratios are high but only for this short time frame. We believe that over the coming two years credit will dry up again and loans, especially bad credit loans will become near impossible to obtain.
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The current economy is demonstrating a typical "W" double dip formation. The first dip was the recession that the economy went through in 2009. It was set up to be one of the worst recessions that the modern economy would experience. If the government had not taken measures to arrest the downturn the situation would almost certainly be much worst than it is currently. Without the government's intervention the recession would have followed a very pronounced "U" single dip with a very pronounced bottom stretching out for many years.
It is believed that it was the government's intervention in the form of large business bail-outs and targeted fiscal and monetary policy implementation that changed the way the recession presented itself. Now, instead of the hugely undesirable pronounced "U" recession, we are lucky to have the recession form a more manageable "W" double dip formation. The "W" formation is preferable because of the less severe impact that it presents to participants of the economy, businesses and
We believe that the economy is currently at the middle top end of the "W". We are currently enjoying a period where the government policies have artificially allowed for an abatement of the recession's downward spiral. This move allows the economy some breathing space and should allow businesses to gather resources to brace for harder hit in time to come.
We would like to issue a conservative warning that this slight abatement and even slight positive should not to be mistaken for a long-term recovery. The analysts say that there is an extremely high probability that another more serious downturn will happen in the not too distant future. The exact timing or the trigger for this next wave of downward movement is anybody's guess but it will almost certainly come from the government's pulling back of its resources to fight the recession.
We also believe that it is now the crucial time where businesses/individuals will either be able to weather the coming storm or sink because of it. Businesses or individuals that intend to survive in the coming years must use this time to pad up their resources quickly and not use the time to obtain bad credit loans. It is the time to take in whatever cash that you have and hold it liquid so you can see your way through the coming hardship.
Those who mistakenly think that the worst is over will be in for a very big surprise in the next couple of years. This is especially so for those who start to expand operations in the false belief that the government spending and policies have taken a permanent effect. In reality it is the spending and policies that are keeping things afloat. When the spending stops the ravages of the decline will once again show its ugly head.
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